3 Steps You Can Take

Bitcoin ETFs were just approved by the USA SEC for the first time.

Along with generative AI (the rise of LLMs + Diffusion Models), I believe we are witnessing significant and historic inflexion points. The last time I felt this was 7th Feb 2018 (Sydney) when I witnessed the launch of Starman (pictured).

Today, my rural life is only possible because Starman became StarLink. I've had thousands of conversations with people predicting Tesla's 'imminent death' (I worked there in 2017) and many other conversations claiming that Bitcoin and generative AI is a fad.

Bitcoin, Machine Learning and electrified transport are not fads or second layer gambles (like NFTs or sh*tcoins can be). Though scams and fads layer on top, at their very core they contain first principles innovations and value that cannot be extinguished.

I also notice that the strongest opponents to these innovations do not understand what they criticise. 'Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme going to zero!' is case in point.

But it's not about Bitcoin. It's about the relentless momentum of humans seeking out independence, growth and self-actualisation that Bitcoin satisfies.

It's not about saving the planet through 'clean' (lol) electric cars. It's about the engineering reality that electrification of work output is far simpler, more efficient and enjoyable than fossil-fuel based designs.

As a farmer, there are many things that still require dead dinosaur juice but the most pleasurable and human-centric inventions are electric.

Honestly, who cares about 'carbon reduction offset blah blah'. Humans just want their devices, tools and vehicles to be freaking awesome at their job and pleasurable to live with. This often means electrification.

Who cares about Satoshi's 2024 planned halving of the block reward to ensure BTC is a deflationary asset. Humans just want a store (and medium of exchange) of wealth that is immune to the corruption of politicians and corporations that run our lives in 2024.

Who cares about the transformer architecture and the arms race due to the quadratic compute scaling limit. Humans just want the Star Trek Computer that makes our lives easier and supercharges our natural abilities.

Now...if you're under 50 years old, you've got a lot of decades remaining. You will reap a real return educating yourself on the 'weird' terms I've dropped above.

Start by googling 'inflation' and 'fiat currency' to begin building your defence against those who would rob you blind of the wealth you've worked so hard to accumulate.

Consider the major revolutions of history:

• Agricultural revolution 10,000-5,000 BC
• Printing press 1400s
• Industrial revolution 1700s-1900s
• Information revolution 1950s-2000s
• Digital revolution ~1990s-2005
• Mobile revolution ~2005-2020
• AI revolution ~2022+

This layout is time/event based. Another way to think of technological revolutions is systems based. This is why you keep hearing about 'the fourth industrial revolution' which looks like this:

No matter how you think of revolutions, they are all ultimately defined by how significantly they change the way humans live.

We have all become de-sensitised to claims of 'technological breakthrough!' because they are usually overblown, myopic and have no significant effect on how humans live. Sometimes they never will, sometimes they are simply early. Current example: the Metaverse.

This 'failure to launch' is normal and to be expected in the advent of new technology. Tech needs to be birthed, tried and tested in the natural game of 'survival of the fittest'.

Thus it's easy to dismiss the latest 'groudbreaking app' as just more hype designed to line the pockets of a corporation. It's probably just a fad that will die in a year's time right?

Park that cynicism for a moment as you watch this video from Microsoft. Ask yourself whether you are witnessing vaporware, empty hype, or something more:

I believe it's something more. Let me explain by way of a story:

In 2022 we shrank our staff count (deliberately - to extend our startup's runway). In the strive to maintain output we attempted to automate or accelerate much of our daily tasks. Nearly all automated tools and assistants were eventually jettisoned because their effort:benefit ratio didn't make sense.

Except for OpenAI's ChatGPT.

We have now permanently integrated ChatGPT3.5 into a large number of our workflows, and our day to day looks very different to just 6 months ago. Not only is generative, predictive AI speeding up and enabling content creation with fewer staff, it's changing the way we create.

But wait, there's more! We are hearing from housewives, seniors(!) and from nearly every business we consult for...everyone is experiencing the same paradigm shift.

The common refrain is that they now rely on AI to such an extent that they cannot imagine life without it. Kind of like imagining living and working without the internet.

AI is now a contagion.

We are witnessing a technological revolution with generative AI and few are ready to adapt like Millennials are. Fellow travellers born loosely around 1981-1996 will remember what it's like to learn and grow on both sides of 'the internet'.

Thanks to fortuitous timing, we Millennials understand the internet both natively and as adopted phenomena.

This is unlike Generation X whose young minds were formed pre-internet but have since adopted it as a tool for life.

Millennials are even more unlike Generation Z (so called 'Digital Natives') who were born into a digital era, their brains forming in a world rich with information and instant connection.

I truly appreciate and feel the wonder of broadband internet because dial-up, failed connections and information scarcity is a visceral and lived reality:

But I also share the natural fluency for the digital world that Gen Z has, finding it easy to be an 'early adopter' of tech.

That Microsoft ad above is actually just a collection of use-cases that are already happening TODAY. But it seems to be happening in the lives of the 'early majority', not just the 'early adopter' category.

With smart integrations, we are going to blow right past 'the chasm' or 'the tipping point'.

Why? Because this revolution is PRAGMATIC. It's practically improving the lives of people and businesses everywhere. The 'Early Majority' are in fact...pragmatists. They adopt tech if it makes sense. And large language models make sense to our everyday lives.

Despite all the false starts, inflated claims, utopian visions and fear-mongering we've endured this past decade, AI may finally be truly be revolutionising the world.

 

Less Skynet, and more J.A.R.V.I.S.

 

 

But where does that leave us poor humans? How do we adapt?

 

Creativity won't disappear, at least when generative AI is built on prediction algorithms on large data sets. In a sense, it's merely smooshing things together to generate something 'new' but not really seeding anything truly novel. But it will re-weight everything we create...

 

 

With retrieval of information and generation of content commoditised in the next handful of years, you may feel a little like a phone booth in the era of smartphones, or a steam engine in the age of Teslas.

 

But there's a new skillset up for grabs: prompting.

 

'Prompt engineering' is designing inputs for AI to process and work with. This is the new skillset required in the AI revolution. He who asks best, gets the best answers. Just like we spend more time teaching kids to type than write, we now need to learn to prompt.

 

 

The nerds took over as 'the cool kids' somewhere after 2000, but soon having a whole lot of knowledge in your head will be redundant. Even content creation is about to commoditise, and statistically barely anyone learned how to be a content creator instead of a consumer!

 

 

Don't miss this next revolution. It's a biggie. Start searching some of the keywords in this article like 'prompt engineering', and get familiar with the new world coming at you, where:

 

Asking questions is about to become more important than knowing answers!

If you walked into 10 Victorians this morning, statistically, 3.7 voted Labor, 3.5 voted Liberal, 1.1 voted Green and 1.7 voted Other. On the street at least, it is most definitely not wall-to-wall #IStandWithDan luvvies.

Daniel Andrews did however secure a strong win for the Labor Party in Victoria based on seats. The swing against Labor was commensurate with what any 3rd term government could expect. Which is quite a feat considering the corruption scandals and constant media haranguing across media (including by us).

The anti-Dan wave was a gentle tide that saw Greens and Victorian Socialists pick up a lot more support. 

A small fraction of disaffected Labor conservatives ended up with the DLP and much of the Liberal Party's conservative base losses went to Family First or freedom parties. 

The Greens and Teals stole support from both Labor and Liberal and deserve congratulations on being consistent performers at elections, no matter what you think of their policies or principles.

The Nationals performed exceptionally well and looks like the Libs were a drag on the Nationals. Many conservative Liberal types will point to the Nats as evidence why a return to unabashed classical stances is the path to electoral victory.

Inside the Liberal Party however discussions must be centering around 'buck the trend' gains like James Newbury in Brighton which will inevitably drag the party left, to keep pace with what we must all admit now is Australian culture.

Yes it's inner city, but the trend over multiple elections in multiple states and federally says that Australia is racing left (we can argue over the merits of that another time).

On a seat basis Labor retains a similar lower house make up. Massive chunks of support were sliced off Labor in its exceptionally safe seats in the North and West without actually flipping seats.

Victoria has spoken loudly that it is not particularly critical of Daniel Andrews' handling of the pandemic, the health system crisis, the debt or corruption scandals.

The left wing of the Labor Party secured a solid victory, and should be congratulated. It retains and entrenches incredible levels of control in the public sector, in the social culture of Victoria, and in the Labor party itself. 

Socialist Left faction Labor strategy appears to be a winning brand of politics in Victoria.

Now many already accuse the result of being unrepresentative when a primary vote in the 30s forms government, and the leader of that government makes such sweeping statements and Overton Window shifts to redefine a new centre. Yes it is unrepresentative, but it would also be the case if the Liberals won.

This is clearly Daniel's party, Daniel's state and Daniel's story, even though of the 10 people you meet on the street, only 3.7 directly voted for him.

He is a masterful politician.

He is so skilled that he has many convinced he is a 'uniter', even as he spews invective at Victorians in his victory speech!

The very people he claims to give no thought to were high on his mind as he made scientific health claims 'Vaccines work!' and singled out anyone who was unvaccinated. 

This makes no sense in a victory speech over his rivals the Liberals and Nationals who are statistically all vaccinated anyway (Victoria is about 90% double dosed over 18 with varying but high levels of triple dosed).

It is also eerily reminiscent of dark days, for those of us who have survived traumatic abuse at the hands of trusted authority figures. The feeling of being told we are 'imagining things' as we are beaten for our own good and told we are 'loved' is all too familiar.

It would have been much more productive to simply say 'We may have gotten some things wrong, but our heart overall is to govern for all Victorians. No matter who you voted for, you matter to me and I will be a leader you can rely on no matter your choices in life'.

So whilst Daniel's direct vote does not reflect the sweeping tone he employs in all of his statements, nor the shrieks by #IStandWithDan Luvvies on Twitter, Victorians quietly approve - or at least allow - Daniel's vision for Victoria.

It seems the CFMEU may have nailed the tone: 'Dan may be a prick' but he's our prick.

Now, we must take collective responsibility for what Victoria is, and will become, both good and bad. 

Even if 4 out of 10 people on the street might hate what happened last night.